Question 1 of 3
Couldn't load the puzzle
Check your internet connection and try again.
How likely is it?
Three questions about chance, every day. Guess the odds. The closer you get, the better your score.
No puzzle today
Today's puzzle isn't ready. There are plenty of past ones to play in the meantime.
How it works
- 1
Read the question
Some you can work out with math (there's a calculator). Others come from real-world data, with a source.
- 2
Guess the odds
Type "1 in something" or a percentage, and the other fills in by itself. Or drag the slider. A few to calibrate your gut:
- 3
See how far off you were
If the answer is 1 in 500 and you said 1 in 50, you were 10× off. 1× is perfect. Your day score is the average of your three.
Past puzzles
Your guess
You were
- Your guess
- The answer
The math
Your score
How many times off you were, on average. 1× is perfect. Lower is better.
What the tiers mean
The top tier is named after Blaise Pascal. In 1654 a gambler brought him some puzzles about dice and bets. Pascal wrote to Pierre de Fermat about them, and their letters started probability theory. Every question here is one where your gut has an answer and the math has a different one.
Share your result
Your answers
Next puzzle in
--:--:--